How Do Investments, Lodging Capacity and Past Performance Shape Tourist Post-Pandemic Competitiveness Across Romanian Destinations?

This study examines the determinants of post-crisis tourism performance by comparing 207 Romanian tourist destinations in 2023, the first post-pandemic year, with their pre-pandemic performance in 2019. Grounded in Destination Competitiveness and Attractiveness Models, this study employs a negative binomial regression to analyse how recent investment projects, the expansion of accommodation capacity, and historical, pre-pandemic destination performance influence current tourist demand. Our results indicate that strong pre-pandemic tourism performance and strategic investments in tourist destinations are significant predictors of increased overnight stays, highlighting the role of pre-existing competitiveness in post-crisis tourism recovery. Accommodation capacity’s impact is more complex, as an expanding lodging supply raises overnight stays overall, but its effect differs sharply between regions. Ten additional accommodation establishments correspond to an estimated 34.9% increase in the north-east against 3.2% in the south-east region, and this contrast is statistically significant. Returns to capacity expansion, therefore, vary by an order of magnitude within a single country, challenging the assumption of a universal tourism development model and indicating that such returns depend on whether unmet demand exists locally. The findings support place-based, sustainable and resilience-oriented tourism policies that address regional disparities and direct investment where it can generate sustainable demand.