Relationship Between Number of Acute Pancreatitis Episodes and Risk of New-onset Diabetes in the U.S.: A Real-world Data Analysis

Q: What does this research mean for the field?

Recurrent acute pancreatitis is associated with a significantly increased risk of incident diabetes mellitus compared to a single episode, with the risk increasing alongside the frequency of recurrences. Novelty: ClaimNovelty.INCREMENTAL. Consensus alignment: ConsensusAlignment.NEUTRAL.

Djibril M. Ba; Yue Zhang; Kadiyatu Fofana; Tian Qiu; Douglas Leslie; Xiang Gao; Vernon M. Chinchilli; Nazia Raja-Khan; Phil A. Hart

doi:10.1097/mpa.0000000000002708

September 1, 2026Pancreas

Relationship Between Number of Acute Pancreatitis Episodes and Risk of New-onset Diabetes in the U.S.: A Real-world Data Analysis

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Key Points

To determine whether recurrent acute pancreatitis increases the risk of incident diabetes mellitus compared to a single acute pancreatitis episode.
Conducted a retrospective cohort study using the Merative MarketScan database (2016–2023) in 16,184 patients with acute pancreatitis and no baseline diabetes mellitus.
Categorized exposure as recurrent acute pancreatitis (≥1 episode occurring ≥90 days post-index) versus a single episode, following participants across 40,712 person-years.
Estimated risk of incident diabetes using multivariable stratified Cox proportional hazards regression models.
Over follow-up, 1,477 incident diabetes cases occurred, with recurrent acute pancreatitis conferring a significantly higher risk compared to a single episode (adjusted HR, 1.92; 95% CI, 1.61–2.29).
Effect modification revealed stronger associations in females (adjusted HR, 2.44; 95% CI, 1.87–3.19) than males (adjusted HR, 1.64; 95% CI, 1.30–2.07; P=0.03 for interaction).
Associations were also significantly stronger in younger individuals aged 18–46 years (adjusted HR, 2.56; 95% CI, 1.97–3.31) and individuals without tobacco abuse (adjusted HR, 2.19; 95% CI, 1.81–2.65; P<0.05 for interaction).

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Implication

Retrospective cohort study reveals increased risk of new-onset diabetes in patients with recurrent acute pancreatitis, highlighting the need for proactive glycemic monitoring.

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Cite This Study

Ba et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a9935c7636c6408cfa7e424 https://doi.org/10.1097/mpa.0000000000002708

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Relationship Between Number of Acute Pancreatitis Episodes and Risk of New-onset Diabetes in the U.S.: A Real-world Data Analysis

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Cite This Study

Relationship Between Number of Acute Pancreatitis Episodes and Risk of New-onset Diabetes in the U.S.: A Real-world Data Analysis

Key Points

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Implication

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Cite This Study

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