Research on the “Economy-Society-Environment” Sustainability of Urban Agglomerations in the Yellow River Basin, China

Sustainable development encompasses economic, social, and environmental dimensions. Assessing urban sustainability and regional disparities is essential for promoting high-quality development. This study evaluated 72 cities in the urban agglomerations of the Yellow River Basin, China, based on the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and analyzed the coordinated development level of the “economy-society-environment” (ESE) system from 2007 to 2022. The results show that: (1) Cities with higher SDGs scores are mainly located in the Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration (SPUA), while lower scores are concentrated in the Ningxia Yellow River urban agglomeration (NXUA) and the Lanzhou-Xining urban agglomeration (LXUA); (2) During the study period, the coupling coordination level among urban agglomerations in the Yellow River Basin continuously improved. By 2022, most cities in the SPUA had entered the “mild disorder” stage, while the majority of other urban agglomerations remained in the “moderate disorder” stage, indicating that although the overall coordination of the ESE system had improved, significant regional disparities persisted; (3) The Random Forest algorithm (RFA)-SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) model indicates that the urban sprawl index and the economic development level are the important influencing factors of economic sustainability, fiscal expenditure per unit area and urbanization level are associated with social sustainability, and water bodies and cropland are closely related to environmental sustainability. This study provides insights into the spatial disparities and key influencing factors associated with urban sustainable development in the Yellow River Basin, supporting regional sustainability planning.