The Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress (E-PASS) model as a predictor of postoperative complications and mortality after digestive surgeries: a meta-analysis and systematic review

BACKGROUND: Conflicting results exist about the usefulness of the Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress (E-PASS) model in patients undergoing digestive surgeries. Thus, this study aims to analyze and evaluate the E-PASS model for predicting postoperative complications and mortality. METHODS: A literature search strategy for "E-PASS" was carried out in PubMed, Embase, Google Scholar, Ovid, and Cochrane databases for studies published before November 2020. "E-PASS" or "Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress" were used as the search terms in all databases, and a total of 20 published English language studies with available data relating to digestive surgery were selected for this study. Clinical data and indices including preoperative risk score (PRS), surgical stress score (SSS), comprehensive risk score (CRS), postoperative complications, mortality, and overall survival (OS) were collected. Meta-analyses of heterogeneity were performed using Review Manager version 5.3 and STATA 14.0. RESULTS: Twenty studies with 9,136 patients were included in our meta-analysis. Using a random-effects model, the indices of the E-PASS model in patients with postoperative complications were significantly greater than those in patients without complications [PRS: 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.14-1.50; SSS: 95% CI: 0.28-1.06; CRS: 95% CI: 048-1.49]. Moreover, patient morbidity and mortality were associated with a higher CRS (morbidity: 95% CI: 2.17-6.29; mortality: 95% CI: 1.57-4.78), while subgroup analyses showed that a high CRS in the elderly was related to increased morbidity (95% CI: 1.57-4.78) without heterogeneity. In addition, we found that a high E-PASS CRS was significantly associated with shorter OS after digestive surgery (95% CI: 1.24-5.41). DISCUSSION: The higher CRS score in the E-PASS model accompanies with many postoperative complications, increased mortality and shorter OS. Collectively, the E-PASS model is a convenient and effective risk assessment for patients undergoing digestive surgeries. More stringently designed studies are expected to develop better estimates of the application value of this model in digestive surgeries.