Potential Air Quality Improvements from Ultralow Emissions at Coal-fired Power Plants in China

To assess the effectiveness of nationwide ultralow emission policies for coal-fired power plants on air quality in China, we simulated several criteria pollutants concentrations using the Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model for four one-month periods (January, April, July, and October). Two emissions scenarios were conducted with the BASE case having emissions of 2013 and the ER60 case decreasing coal-fired power plants emissions to the standards of gas power plants. Model results from the BASE case were first evaluated through a comparison with observational data collected at 47 urban sites across China, which showed mean fractional bias in the range of –27% to 10% and mean fractional error in the range of 15% to 36% depending on chemical species, suggesting the reasonable performance of the modeling system. The ER60 simulation revealed potential decreases of 8%, 40% and 20% in annual concentrations of PM2.5, SO2 and NO2, respectively, in eastern China should the emissions from coal-fired power plants be reduced to the standards of gas power plants. Stringent control plans for coal-fired power plants as well as for other major emission sources are needed to improve urban air qualities across China.