MELD-Na score may underestimate disease severity and risk of death in patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD)

Portal hypertension often precedes the development of advanced fibrosis in patients with Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) and may accelerate disease progression to cirrhosis. We aimed to evaluate whether prioritization tools accurately predict survival in patients with MASLD and clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH). We retrospectively identified patients diagnosed with esophageal or gastric varices (EGV). Laboratory results, endoscopy reports and outcomes of patients with MASLD were compared to patients with advanced stage chronic liver disease (CLD) of other etiologies. During the study period 326 patients were diagnosed with EGV. 88 (26.9%) had MASLD, 113 (34.6%) viral hepatitis (VH), 63 (19.3%) alcoholic liver disease (ALD) and 62 (19%) both VH and ALD (VHALD). EGV bleeding events were significantly more frequent in patients with MASLD (36.3%), compared to VH (28.3%), ALD (30.1%) and VHALD (25.8%), respectively (p < 0.01). Mean Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD)-Na score surrounding 1 year of first event of EGV bleeding was significantly lower in MASLD patients compared to all other etiologies (p = 0.02). At a MELD-Na score of 11-20, cumulative survival rate was significantly lower in MASLD patients compared to all other etiologies (log rank p < 0.01). MASLD patients present with EGV bleeding at lower MELD-Na scores compared to other etiologies of CLD. MELD-Na score may therefore underestimate disease severity and risk of death in patients with MASLD and CSPH.