Transition without transformation: net-zero industrial policy, green path diversification and creation

The development of new pathways for industrial decarbonisation is a formidable task demanding highly coordinated action. While industrial clusters are potentially key sites for low-carbon transitions, embedded regional structures if not fully understood may constrain green transformation. Developing a case study based on the highest carbon emission industrial clusters in three different countries in the UK, we show that net-zero industrial policy systematically privileges green path diversification over green path creation. We argue that mission-based and cluster policy should integrate embedded regional dynamics, tailored to context, to deliver more radical green path creation rather than incremental, incumbent-led path diversification.