A critical synthesis of forest carbon dynamics in central india over two decades

India harbours one of the largest extents of tropical forest in the world, and these forests are central to the country''s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and national climate policy. While global reviews (e.g. [11, 77, 124]) have assessed pantropical carbon balances, region-specific evidence for India, and particularly for the ecologically distinct dry and moist deciduous forests of Central India, has remained fragmented. This critical synthesis addresses that gap by consolidating 20 years (2005–2025) of India-focused literature on forest carbon dynamics. Tropical forests cover nearly half of the world''s forests and act as a major carbon sink. However, they are losing their capacity to store carbon, and the gap between carbon sources and sinks has widened over the past two decades. This critical synthesis (systematic review) consolidates information from 223 research articles on carbon dynamics in Indian tropical forests that were published between 2005 and 2025 — a 20-year window that we define as "long-term" for this study, spanning two full India State of Forest Report assessment cycles and the entire post-2005 period against which India''s NDC baseline and forest-carbon commitments are tracked. Current evidence from the available regional studies suggests that parts of Central India may be transitioning from net carbon sinks toward net carbon sources,this pattern is not yet established for Indian forests as a whole. A net carbon loss of 59 Gg C has been recorded over the last 20 years. Meanwhile, aboveground biomass (ABG) and soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks fluctuated between 26.4 to 131.1 Mg C ha−1 and 24.6 to 50.2 Mg C ha−1, respectively. Human activities such as deforestation, agricultural expansion, and infrastructure development contribute significantly to this carbon loss. This, in turn, is linked to more frequent and severe climate change impacts. Climate model projections warn of alarming forest alterations by 2050, emphasizing the need for immediate action. Currently, most tropical moist deciduous and semi-evergreen forests are vulnerable to climate change. Therefore, effective mitigation requires cohesive strategies, including sustainable forest management (SFM), Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD +), community forest resource rights, agroforestry outside forests, and invasive species management to reduce carbon emissions.