A systematic review of key factors informing foresight for sustainable dairy development across emerging countries

A variety of internal and external factors, including population growth, economic development, environmental issues, and others, can significantly affect the sustainability of the dairy sector. Nowadays, the foresight approach is increasingly used in agricultural systems; however, few studies provide a comprehensive synthesis of the key factors influencing the sustainable development of the dairy sector. This gap may hinder the development of evidence-based foresight scenarios to support strategic planning and policy formulation. The drivers may differ across emerging countries. This systematic review aims to identify and synthesize the key factors underpinning foresight scenarios for the sustainable development of the dairy sector across emerging countries. The methodology employed was that of a systematic literature review (SLR). This study adopted the PRISMA 2020 methodology, comprising three main steps: identification and selection criteria, assessment and evaluation of reports, and analysis of results. The two countries with the most articles included in the study were Kenya and India. The 44 factors were classified into five categories: social, technological, economic, environmental, and policy. The two most dominant factors are economic and environmental, accounting for 78% and 72% of the total, respectively. Meanwhile, social factors account for only about 44%. The indicators from the economic, social, and environmental pillars have been used in previous studies to assess the impact of each scenario. Additionally, the analysis shows that stakeholder involvement in preparing foresight scenarios varies widely. This systematic review not only identifies key factors but also shows that economic and environmental dimensions dominate foresight studies. In addition, the diversity of factors included is also influenced by stakeholder participation in scenario design. Some of the key factors relevant to the context of the future dairy sector in Indonesia include government programs (such as the Free Nutritious Meal Program) and high numbers of cow import plans (Policy category), as well as some others, for instance: access to markets, farm production factors, education, and sustainable agricultural practices (Social, Technology, Economic, and Environment categories). This systematic review underscores the significance of these key factors in shaping future changes and scenarios in the dairy sector while providing a structured conceptual framework for developing evidence-based foresight scenarios. Furthermore, it can support strategic planning for the sustainable development of the dairy sector across emerging countries, with Indonesia presented as an illustrative contextual application.