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Model evaluation demonstrates that a tight phase-distance filter decreases total profit despite win-rate gains in algorithmic trading, highlighting the dangers of overfitting.
DECISION: REJECT ELEMENT: No single rule survives — the ≤2° phase-distance filter is not compatible with E8-node/Gods-Clock rhythm logic because phase distance is a derived, non-geometric metric that does not align with the fixed nodal timing structure. The +4.5pp win-rate gain is unverified against per-trade phase data and risks becoming a hidden volatility filter. EXPECTED IMPACT: If adopted, win rate might rise ~2–3pp on a reduced sample, but total PnL would likely drop 15–25% due to fewer trades and missed high-R:R setups in wider phase spreads. The edge is not proven to be independent of regime. RISK: Overfitting to a narrow phase window; silent conversion into a volatility filter that underperforms in trending markets; reduced trade frequency increases time-in-market and exposure to gap risk; live phase-distance distribution may not match backtest. TEST: Must pass a walk-forward split (3 sequential chunks, positive PnL delta in ≥2/3) AND a 90-day shadow backtest on all ri Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
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Andrew Stewart Caldin (2026) studied this question.
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