Distinct eGFR trajectories are associated with risk of myocardial infarction in people with diabetes or pre-diabetes

Background The relationship between estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) trajectories and myocardial infarction (MI) remains unclear in people with diabetes or prediabetes. We aimed to identify common eGFR trajectories in people with diabetes or prediabetes and to examine their association with MI risk. Methods The data of this analysis was derived from the Kailuan study, which was a prospective community-based cohort study. The eGFR trajectories of 24,723 participants from year 2006 to 2012 were generated by latent mixture modeling. Incident cases of MI occurred during 2012 to 2017, confirmed by review of medical records. Cox proportional hazards models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HR) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the subsequent risk of MI of different eGFR trajectories. Results We identified 5 distinct eGFR trajectories, and named them as low-stable (9.4%), moderate-stable (31.4%), moderate-increasing (29.5%), high-decreasing (13.9%) and high-stable (15.8%) according to their range and pattern. During a mean follow-up of 4.61 years, there were a total of 235 incident MI. Although, the high-decreasing group had similar eGFR levels with the moderate-stable group at last exposure period, the risk was much higher (adjusted HR, 3.43; 95%CI, 1.56–7.54 versus adjusted HR, 2.82; 95%CI, 1.34–5.95). Notably, the moderate-increasing group had reached to the normal range, still had a significantly increased risk (adjusted HR, 2.55; 95%CI, 1.21–5.39). Conclusions eGFR trajectories were associated with MI risk in people with diabetes or prediabetes. Emphasis should be placed on early and long-term detection and control of eGFR decreases to further reduce MI risk.