Comparative epidemiological analysis reveals matching wave magnitudes between COVID-19 and 1918 influenza in the United Kingdom, indicating recurring epidemic transmission dynamics.
We compared the COVID-19 and 1918-19 influenza pandemics in the United Kingdom. We found that the ongoing COVID-19 wave of infection matched the major wave of the 1918-19 influenza pandemic surprisingly well, with both reaching similar magnitudes (in terms of estimated weekly new infections) and spending the same duration with over five cases per 1000 inhabitants over the previous two months. We also discussed the similarities in epidemiological characteristics between these two pandemics.
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He et al. (2020) studied this question.
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