In an efficient NFL beting market, point spreads incorporate all relevant information contained in past game outcomes. Efficiency implies that trading rules based on past game outcomes should not be able to produce a consistent pattern of winners over losers. This study identifies 15 trading rules based on historical game outcomes and, using simulated gambling, tests them over the 1984–1986 NFL seasons. The study's main finding indicates that the NFL betting market is efficient, but does identify a small set of profitable trading rules over this time period.
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Nelson Lacey (1990) studied this question.
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