Evaluation of POSSUM in Predicting Post-Operative Morbidity in Patients Undergoing Pancreaticoduodenectomy

The Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM) is a predictive scoring system for post-operative morbidity. The present study assessed the value of POSSUM in predicting post-operative morbidity following pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD). POSSUM scores were prospectively calculated for 265 consecutive cases of PD performed between 2005 and 2007. Expected morbidity was estimated based on POSSUM scores and was compared with observed morbidity. Patients were also stratified into one of four groups based on their individual POSSUM scores and subsequent risk of morbidity. Mean expected morbidity was 43.81% (116 cases) and mean observed morbidity was 39.62% (105 cases) (no statistically significant difference). It is concluded that the POSSUM scoring system has high value for predicting the risk of morbidity in PD patients.