Dynamic impacts of a shock in crude oil price on agricultural chemical and fertilizer prices

A monthly vector autoregression (VAR) model of the following prices was estimated over the 1962:1–1990:6 period: crude oil price (CRUDE), industrial chemical price (INDCHEM), agricultural chemical price (AGCHEM), and fertilizer price (FERT). The VAR was shocked with a rise in CRUDE, and dynamic impulse response patterns in AGCHEM and FERT were observed. Results suggest that AGCHEM and FERT responses would be increases; would be mild for half a year; would thereafter gain in strength and peak within 19 to 21 months; and would last for 2.0 to 2.3 years. AGCHEM and FERT would rise by about one-fourth of the percentage increase in CRUDE which occurs over the response period.