The Role of Science Course Pathways in Predicting College Enrollment: Insight From A Large Urban School District

Although high school science course‐taking is highly valued in college admissions, its predictability for college enrollment, a key step in access to many STEM fields, has not been sufficiently investigated in the context of wide variability in science courses and updated standards. Furthermore, while ability group tracking in science has declined, tracking can persist in the levels, type, and breadth of science courses taken. The study analyzes students' science course‐taking pathways from ninth through eleventh grade and examines their relationship with college enrollment. We use cross‐classified hierarchical logistic regression modeling of students nested within both course pathways and schools in a large urban school district, examining school and course pathway features and controlling for academic performance and student characteristics. An analysis of variance partitioning shows that science course pathways explain more of the variance in on‐time college enrollment than schools. Completing the three core science courses—biology, chemistry, and physics—remains a strong predictor of college enrollment, even in the context of updated science standards, but the presence of advanced science coursework in the pathway showed the strongest association with college enrollment. Greater school STEM‐orientation was associated with increased likelihood of college enrollment.