A Stochastic Multi-Criteria Sustainability Assessment Framework for Alternative Aviation Fuels Under Carbon Pricing Uncertainty

Aviation decarbonization requires decision support approaches that simultaneously consider environmental, thermodynamic, and economic performance under uncertain future conditions. This study presents a stochastic multi-criteria screening framework for evaluating alternative aviation fuel pathways under carbon pricing uncertainty. The quantitative assessment focuses on conventional Jet-A1 as the fossil reference and two drop-in sustainable aviation fuel pathways: hydroprocessed ester and fatty acid sustainable aviation fuel (HEFA-SAF) and synthetic Power-to-Liquid sustainable aviation fuel (PtL-SAF). Liquid hydrogen is discussed only as a prospective non-drop-in pathway whose detailed quantitative assessment requires different aircraft system, infrastructure, and certification boundaries. Therefore, the numerical ranking is restricted to Jet-A1, HEFA-SAF, and PtL-SAF. The framework combines stoichiometric carbon accounting, energy-normalized well-to-wake carbon intensity assessment, energy integration screening, techno-economic evaluation, Monte Carlo simulation, scenario-based carbon–cost trade-off screening, and utility score evaluation. Life-cycle carbon and cost values are treated as scenario inputs. Results indicate that HEFA-SAF and PtL-SAF reduce carbon price exposure relative to Jet-A1, but their cost performance remains sensitive to fuel price, carbon intensity, and carbon price uncertainty.