The rates with which individuals fail versus achieve physical activity goals: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials

In this review, we aimed to investigate the rates with which individuals fail versus achieve their goals in physical activity programmes. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of 89 randomised controlled trials (N = 10,219 individuals) identified via a search of APA PsycINFO, MEDLINE, and SPORTDiscus until 5th September 2024. We conducted primary analysis with data from 30 studies with low risk of bias (N = 4,204 individuals), and complementary sensitivity analyses with the remaining studies judged to have some concerns and high risk of bias. Primary analyses found that the majority of participants failed to achieve their goals at each timepoint (range = 57.9%–77.0%), and that rates of achievement declined over time. Sensitivity analyses supported these findings, with the exception that achievement rates during interventions were significantly higher (p < .01) in studies with some concerns and high risk of bias. In studies with low risk of bias, achievement was higher among individuals with cardiac health issues and Type 2 diabetes, and lower when goals were prescribed (rather than self-set or collaboratively-set). These findings highlight the need for programmes to incorporate strategies for maximising achievement and minimising failure to support adoption and maintenance of physical activity.