Simulation analysis reveals distribution transformer capacity limits solar photovoltaic integration in urban grids, highlighting key trade-offs in rooftop energy planning.
This study characterizes the photovoltaic potential of three urban areas in Cuenca, Ecuador, located in the San Sebastián, Totoracocha, and Yanuncay parishes, through twelve technical, energy-related, socioeconomic, and environmental indicators. The analysis was complemented with grid simulations in CYME 9.2 to assess photovoltaic integration capacity in the distribution network and with a multicriteria synthesis using PROMETHEE II. The variables considered included solar irradiation, usable rooftop area, electricity consumption, population density, socioeconomic level, and the operating characteristics of distribution transformers. The results show that photovoltaic potential varies according to urban morphology, electricity demand, and the operating capacity of the grid. Totoracocha exhibited the highest theoretical potential and a self-sufficiency level of 99.1%, but it also recorded the lowest technical utilization factor, at 15.6%, because of transformer constraints. Yanuncay achieved the highest estimated technically available surplus under the evaluated operating scenarios, at 452,737 kWh/year, whereas San Sebastián exhibited the highest technical utilization factor, at 27.2%. The simulations confirmed that transformers constitute the main technical constraint on photovoltaic integration, while medium-voltage lines and voltage levels remained within their operating limits. The technically usable surplus energy could be allocated to induction cooking, electric mobility, or green hydrogen production as alternative, non-simultaneous scenarios. The energy allocated to self-sufficiency could avoid approximately 1022.5 tCO2/year. Orientation analysis showed statistically significant but limited differences among the evaluated configurations, indicating that orientation should be considered together with other rooftop and grid-related factors rather than as a standalone feasibility criterion. Overall, the proposed integrated framework provides a comparative decision-support basis for sustainable urban photovoltaic planning by jointly considering rooftop potential, electricity demand, grid constraints, socioeconomic conditions, and environmental benefits.
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Ortiz-Tusa et al. (2026) studied this question.
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