An integrated multi-hazard risk assessment framework for urban cultural heritage based on hazard susceptibility and vulnerability

Under the combined pressures of climate change and rapid urbanization, urban cultural heritage in developing countries is increasingly exposed to multiple natural hazards. However, the spatial differentiation of these risks remains insufficiently understood. Taking Guangzhou, China, as a case study, this study develops an integrated multi-hazard risk assessment framework that combines hazard susceptibility mapping for landslides, floods, earthquakes, and erosion with heritage vulnerability indicators. GIS-based spatial analysis is used to examine the spatial distribution of risk and to identify dominant contributing factors. The results show that floods constitute the primary hazard drivers affecting cultural heritage in Guangzhou. Heritage sites in the urban core exhibit a typical high-hazard–high-exposure pattern, whereas peripheral districts are characterized by lower hazard levels but higher vulnerability. High-risk sites are mainly concentrated among municipally protected heritage and ancient site types, reflecting disparities between environmental constraints and institutional protection capacity. Overall, this study demonstrates that multi-source geospatial and statistical data can support refined and cost-effective identification of cultural heritage risk under data-limited conditions, providing a transferable framework for risk-informed cultural heritage conservation and management.