Spatiotemporal Evolution, Associated Factors, and Spatial Transition of Water Resource Use Efficiency in the Yangtze River Basin

Improving water resource use efficiency (WRUE) is essential for achieving sustainable water management under increasing socioeconomic and environmental pressures. This study investigates the spatiotemporal evolution, associated factors, and spatial transition characteristics of WRUE across 11 provincial-level administrative regions in the Yangtze River Basin during 2010–2024. An integrated framework combining the super-efficiency SBM-window DEA model, Malmquist–Luenberger index, GeoDetector, and conventional and spatial Markov chain models was developed to characterize efficiency dynamics, productivity changes, explanatory factors, and state-transition pathways. The results showed that WRUE exhibited an overall fluctuating upward trend with a clear spatial gradient of lower reaches > middle reaches > upper reaches. The mean ML index was 1.004, indicating that technological change (TC) was the main contributor to productivity improvement. Urbanization rate, water use per CNY 10,000 of GDP, industrial water-use share, and primary-industry share exhibited relatively high explanatory power, and their interactions enhanced explanatory power. Markov analysis revealed strong persistence in WRUE states, while transition probabilities differed across spatial neighborhood conditions. Assuming stable transition probabilities, the high-efficiency state would reach a steady-state probability of 0.8155. These findings provide insights for differentiated water resource management and coordinated regional development.