Global, Regional, and National Burden of Neural Tube Defects and Digestive Congenital Anomalies in Newborns, 1990–2021, With Projections to 2050: Results From the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study
Global burden analysis reveals declining neural tube and digestive anomalies in newborns through 2050, highlighting persistent health disparities in low-resource settings.
Key Points
To evaluate global, regional, and national trends in disability-adjusted life years and incidence rates for neural tube defects and digestive congenital anomalies from 1990 to 2021, and project patterns through 2050.
Extracted epidemiological data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 study, stratifying by sex, age, region, and socio-demographic index (SDI).
Calculated temporal trends using estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and forecasted future burden through 2050 using exponential smoothing and ARIMA models.
Global age-standardized incidence rates declined from 2.94 to 1.95 for neural tube defects and from 8.09 to 7.42 for digestive congenital anomalies between 1990 and 2021.
Females and children younger than 5 years experienced the highest burden, with low-SDI regions maintaining the highest rates while high-middle-SDI regions saw the fastest reductions.
Projections through 2050 demonstrate a continuing global decline in disability-adjusted life years and incidence for both conditions.