Global burden, trends, and projections to 2050 of neuroblastoma and other peripheral nervous cell tumors: a systematic analysis of the global burden of disease study from 1990 to 2021

Background Neuroblastoma and other Peripheral Nervous Cell Tumors (NPNTs) contribute substantially to global pediatric cancer morbidity and mortality, particularly among children under five. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the global burden of NPNTs, examining long-term trends from 1990 to 2021 and projecting future patterns through 2050, based on data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021. Methods We analyzed mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2021 using GBD data. Trends were assessed via age-standardized rates (ASRs) and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). Predictive models (Exponential Smoothing and ARIMA) projected future burden through 2050. Analyses were stratified by age, sex, and socio-demographic index (SDI) regions. Results In 2021, NPNTs resulted in 5,194 deaths (95% UI: 4,295–5,932) and 285,479 DALYs (95% UI: 227,709–341,110) globally. Children under five years accounted for 1,355 deaths (26.1% of total) and 126,215 DALYs (44.2% of total), with males exhibiting higher mortality rates (ASR: 0.08 vs. 0.06 per 100,000 in females). Middle-SDI regions experienced the highest number of deaths (1,503) and DALYs (79,412), while high-SDI regions had the highest age-standardized death rate (0.09 per 100,000) and DALYs rate (5.25 per 100,000). From 1990 to 2021, population growth drove 90.2% of DALYs increases, while aging offset 13.0% of the rise. Projections diverged: ES models predicted stable trends, whereas ARIMA forecasted a 22.3% increase in male DALYs by 2050 (from 165,574 to 226,533). Conclusions The escalating burden of NPNTs is strongly tied to demographic expansion and inequitable healthcare access. Prioritizing early diagnosis in high-burden regions (e.g., middle/low-SDI settings) and addressing sex-specific disparities are imperative. These findings call for data-driven policies to mitigate future disease burden through targeted resource allocation and surveillance strengthening.