Environmental Drivers and Spatial Suitability of Erosion Control Measures in the Black Soil Region of Northeast China

Sloping farmland erosion in cold-region black soil zones threatens global agriculture, yet regional-scale quantitative evidence on the erosion mitigation performance and spatial suitability of control measures remains lacking. This study integrated 959 field observation datasets from 132 peer-reviewed publications, and used meta-analysis and Boosted Regression Tree (BRT) models to evaluate tillage, biological, engineering, and combined conservation measures in Northeast China. Results showed that all measures significantly reduced erosion, achieving an average runoff reduction of 73.2% and sediment reduction of 83.6%. Specifically, engineering measures showed the highest runoff reduction, while combined measures achieved more than 95% sediment reduction. Machine learning revealed that runoff reduction was primarily regulated by precipitation, whereas sediment reduction was mainly controlled by soil clay content and bulk density. Spatially, tillage, biological, and engineering measures showed the highest suitability in continuous cultivated plains, plain–hill transition zones, and low hilly and gully regions, respectively. This study moves erosion-control assessment beyond comparisons of average runoff and sediment reduction rates toward environmentally matched spatial allocation, providing a basis for targeted black soil conservation and resilient grain production in cold-region agricultural landscapes.