Key result
A 'no' response to the Surprise Question was associated with a nearly three-fold higher risk of 12-month mortality (HR 2.86) compared to a 'yes' response among older adults with advanced chronic kidney disease.
Why the study?
Barriers in clinical workflows have slowed the clinical implementation of the Surprise Question, a validated prognostication tool in advanced CKD.
Does the Surprise Question predict mortality and hospital encounters in older adults with advanced CKD?
Cohort (n=95)
No
Does the Surprise Question predict mortality and hospital encounters in older adults with advanced CKD?
Hazard Ratio: 2.86 (95% CI 1.06–7.69)
Absolute Event Rate: 22% vs 4%
p-value: p=0.014
The Surprise Question can be integrated into the EHR and predicts 12-month mortality in advanced CKD, though low physician response rates highlight the need for improved implementation strategies.
May support mortality risk stratification in advanced CKD; leaves open effects of EHR integration on outcomes and implementation.
Key Points The Surprise Question can be successfully integrated into the electronic health record for routine collection to aid in clinical practice. A low response rate indicates additional implementation efforts are needed to encourage integration of the Surprise Question into clinical practice. Assessment of reasons for nonuptake highlighted improving technical implementation and providing additional decision making support. Background The Surprise Question (SQ; “Would you be surprised if this patient died in the next 12 months?”) is a validated prognostication tool for mortality and hospitalization among patients with advanced CKD. Barriers in clinical workflows have slowed SQ implementation in practice. Objectives The aims of this study were: ( 1 ) to evaluate implementation outcomes after the use of electronic health record (EHR) decision support to automate the collection of the SQ; and ( 2 ) to assess the prognostic utility of the SQ for mortality and hospitalization/emergency room (ER) visits. Methods We developed and implemented a best practice alert (BPA) in the EHR to identify nephrology outpatients ≥60 years of age with an eGFR <30 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 . At appointment, the BPA prompted the physician to answer the SQ. We assessed the rate and timeliness of provider responses. We conducted a post-hoc open-ended survey to assess physician perceptions of SQ implementation. We assessed the SQ’s prognostic utility in survival and time-to-hospital encounter (hospitalization/ER visit) analyses. Results Among 510 patients for whom the BPA triggered, 95 (19%) had the SQ completed by 16 physicians. Among those completed, nearly all (98%) were on appointment day, and 61 (64%) the first time the BPA fired. Providers answered “no” for 27 (28%) and “yes” for 68 (72%) patients. By 12 months, six (22%) “no” patients died; three (4%) “yes” patients died (hazard ratio [HR] 2.86, ref: yes, 95% CI, 1.06 to 7.69). About 35% of “no” patients and 32% of “yes” patients had a hospital encounter by 12 months (HR, 1.85, ref: yes, 95% CI, 0.93 to 3.69). Physicians noted ( 1 ) they had goals-of-care conversations unprompted; ( 2 ) EHR-based interventions alone for goals-of-care are ineffective; and ( 3 ) more robust engagement is necessary. Conclusions We successfully integrated the SQ into the EHR to aid in clinical practice. Additional implementation efforts are needed to encourage further integration of the SQ in clinical practice.
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Ernecoff et al. (2021) conducted a cohort in Advanced Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) (n=95). Surprise Question 'No' response (would not be surprised if patient died) vs. Surprise Question 'Yes' response (would be surprised) was evaluated on 12-month mortality (HR 2.86, 95% CI 1.06 to 7.69, p=0.014). A 'no' response to the Surprise Question was associated with a nearly three-fold higher risk of 12-month mortality (HR 2.86) compared to a 'yes' response among older adults with advanced chronic kidney disease.
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