Using Spreadsheet Software for Predictive Microbiology Applications

Recently, multivariant models based on the use of the Gompertz function in combination with response surface analysis have been developed to predict the behavior of foodborne pathogens in response to food formulation and storage parameters, including temperature, pH, sodium chloride content, sodium nitrite concentration, and atmosphere. These models were adapted for easy use by developing a “user‐friendly'’application program, the Pathogen Modeling Program. This program is based on a commercially available spreadsheet program, Lotus 1‐2‐3TM, and incorporates features such as calculation of predicted growth kinetics and time to achieve specified population densities. The current version of the software includes models for Salmonella, Shigella flexneri, Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, and Aeromonas hydrophila. Microbiological modeling application software of this type appears to have great potential in relation to both developing food products with enhanced microbiological safety and teaching the multivariant nature of microbial growth in foods. The Pathogen Modeling Program is available on request.