Early prediction of a significant patent ductus arteriosus in infants <32 weeks gestational age

BACKGROUND: The optimal thresholds for identification of preterm infants at greatest risk for adverse sequelae related to patent ductus arteriosus have not been well delineated. Our aim was to determine hemodynamic parameters in the first 24 hours using continuous non-invasive vital and structural measurements to predict which infants required PDA treatment in our institution. METHODS: Retrospective secondary analysis of data from infants born 23 to 32 weeks gestational age with cardiac output and stroke volume via electrical cardiometry, cerebral tissue oximetry measurements, mean arterial blood pressure (BP), heart rate, and oxygen saturation and functional echocardiography results at 12 hours of life were recorded when available (93 percent of subjects). RESULTS: A total of 292 infants, of which 55 (26±2 weeks, 862±268 grams) were treated for PDA. Treated infants demonstrated increased left ventricular output (p < 0.001) and lower mean BP (p = 0.010). The optimal area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for predicting PDA treatment in our all gestations cohort is a mean BP at 15 hours of life of <33 mm Hg (AUC = 0.854, p < 0.001, 95% CI 0.792, 0.916). For infants <28 weeks a mean BP at 13 hours of life of <33 mm Hg (AUC = 0.741, p < 0.050, 95% CI 0.642, 0.839). CONCLUSIONS: In our cohort increased left ventricular output and lower mean BP predicted a clinically significant PDA requiring treatment.