Existence of Major Diseases and Modeling of Epidemiologic Transition: A General Systems Theoretic Approach

Multiretation general systems theory is used to study the theory of epidemiologic transition. An existence theorem is shown by virtue of the concept of centralized systems. This result guarantees the existence of major health and disease patterns at each fixed moment in history. A discussion of the feasibility of introducing the so-called theory of epidemiologic transition is given. Conditions are derived under which a health and disease pattern becomes important or attracts major public attention. A consequence of this discussion is the discovery of a new understanding of how to design an education program about disease prevention. Concepts, such as time systems, linked time systems, and periodic linked time systems, are used to model the conceived epidemiologic transition. One of the main results of this paper is that general systems theory is definitely the right tool for qualitative research in epidemiology. Many open-ended questions for further research are pointed out.