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September 7, 2026BMC Public HealthOpen Access

Temporal trends in breast cancer mortality in China, 2004–2021: an analysis of nationwide surveys on cause of death

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Authors

JMJialing MaoNanchang UniversityLCLi ChenNanchang UniversityWCWencai ChenNanchang University

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Implication

Surveillance study reveals rising breast cancer mortality with widening rural disparities in China, highlighting structural barriers to care.

Key Points

  • To evaluate temporal trends and demographic disparities in breast cancer mortality across China from 2004 to 2021.
  • Extracted nationwide mortality surveillance data covering 110,224 recorded breast cancer deaths in China between 2004 and 2021.
  • Calculated crude mortality rates and age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) stratified by sex and urban versus rural residency.
  • Conducted Joinpoint regression analysis to determine temporal trends and calculate average annual percent changes (AAPC).
  • Female crude mortality (7.26 per 100,000) substantially exceeded male rates (0.14 per 100,000) and increased steadily over time (AAPC = 2.21%, p < 0.001).
  • Rural crude mortality expanded at nearly three times the rate of urban mortality (AAPC = 3.19% vs. 1.09%).
  • Male ASMR exhibited an overall positive whole-period AAPC (7.78%, p < 0.001), but Joinpoint modeling revealed an initial rise followed by a significant decline after 2010.

Cite This Study

Mao et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a9e85c4c3034f961570e2cdhttps://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-026-29357-y
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Also Consider

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  1. 1Trends in mortality rates of female breast cancer in China, 2004 to 20212026 · 1 citations
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  4. 4Incidence and Mortality of Female Breast Cancer in Jiangsu, China2014 · 27 citations
  5. 5Trends of Female Breast Cancer Burden in China over 25 Years: A Join Point Regression and Age-Period-Cohort Analysis Based on the GBD (1997–2021)2025 · 3 citations