The Macroeconomic Effects of Strait of Hormuz Disruptions: Evidence on Trade, Inflation, and Exposure Heterogeneity

This study examines whether and how disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are associated with trade growth and inflation across countries with different levels of structural exposure. We construct a continuous Hormuz Disruption Index (HDX) from observable corridor stress indicators, including oil throughput, vessel traffic, LNG flows, and tanker congestion, and combine it with a monthly panel of 60 countries covering January 2018–March 2026. To capture heterogeneous vulnerability, we develop a preferred exposure-only Hormuz Dependency Index (HDI) based on energy import dependence, Gulf oil exposure, trade openness, and energy intensity. At the same time, logistics performance and strategic reserve capacity are treated separately as resilience dimensions. The empirical analysis combines fixed effects models, exposure-based difference-in-differences estimation, and dynamic event study analysis. The results indicate that higher disruption intensity is associated with lower trade growth and higher inflation, with larger responses in more exposed economies. The channel evidence is consistent with transmission via oil price pressure and maritime logistics frictions. At the same time, stronger resilience capacity is associated with smaller adverse trade responses. Because the design is observational and the sample includes overlapping global shocks, the findings are interpreted as exposure-based associations rather than definitive causal estimates. This study contributes a corridor-specific framework for evaluating how geopolitical stress at a strategic maritime chokepoint may generate uneven macroeconomic consequences and highlights the potential value of energy diversification, logistics resilience, and strategic buffers.