Pollution, reproductive health capital, and fertility

Recent research indicates that human infertility rate is increasing. This study explores the hypothesis that this change has occurred because of increasing pollution, which damages the reproductive health of individuals. Individuals can choose the number of their children without worrying about pollution effects when pollution is small relative to reproductive health capital. Nevertheless, when pollution becomes large in a relative sense, it constrains the number of children that individuals can bear and rear. Reduced childrearing time enables young workers to work longer and to earn more, accelerating physical capital accumulation and consequently boosting economic growth. The accelerated physical capital accumulation in turn increases pollution, thereby lowering the fertility rate further. On a balanced growth path, the fertility rate remains constant over periods, but the fertility rate might be lower than the population replacement rate. Pollution abatement measures raise the fertility rate by reducing pollution damage to reproductive health. Although the long-term growth effect of pollution tax changes is ambiguous, the growth rate after the tax changes is lower than the balanced growth rate without a binding fertility constraint.