What does this research mean for the field?

Accounting for severe autocorrelation using a Generalized Least Squares model with an ARMA(1,1) error structure reveals that the trade sector is the strongest driver of Nigeria's GDP, followed by agriculture and industry. Novelty: ClaimNovelty.INCREMENTAL. Consensus alignment: ConsensusAlignment.NEUTRAL.

What question did this study set out to answer?

To diagnose and address autocorrelation in annual Nigerian Gross Domestic Product data from 1986 to 2023 and evaluate the specific contributions of agriculture, industry, and trade.

September 8, 2026Open Access

Modeling Autocorrelation in Gross Domestic Product (Gdp): A Generalized Least Squares Analysis of Sectoral Contributions in Nigeria (1986–2023)

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To diagnose and address autocorrelation in annual Nigerian Gross Domestic Product data from 1986 to 2023 and evaluate the specific contributions of agriculture, industry, and trade.
Evaluated annual macroeconomic data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (1986–2023) using unit root and structural break tests.
Fitted and compared Generalized Least Squares models with AR(1), ARMA(1,1), varPower, and varExp error structures using AIC and BIC model selection criteria.
Detected non-stationarity and severe autocorrelation in raw series (Durbin-Watson statistics: 0.095–0.445, p < 0.001), with the GLS-ARMA(1,1) specification providing the best fit (AIC = 595.28).
Observed significant positive contributions to GDP across all sectors after correction, headed by trade (β = 2.22, p < 0.001), followed by agriculture (β = 1.56, p < 0.001) and industry (β = 1.01, p < 0.001).

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Implication

Time-series econometric analysis reveals significant sectoral drivers of Nigerian gross domestic product after correcting for autocorrelation, highlighting trade as the primary economic contributor.

Cite This Study

Balogun et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a9fd7d558e84d0ff5b46dbf https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22643045

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Implication

Time-series econometric analysis reveals significant sectoral drivers of Nigerian gross domestic product after correcting for autocorrelation, highlighting trade as the primary economic contributor.

Modeling Autocorrelation in Gross Domestic Product (Gdp): A Generalized Least Squares Analysis of Sectoral Contributions in Nigeria (1986–2023)

Key Points

Discussion

Implication

Cite This Study

Modeling Autocorrelation in Gross Domestic Product (Gdp): A Generalized Least Squares Analysis of Sectoral Contributions in Nigeria (1986–2023)

Key Points

Discussion

Implication

Cite This Study

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