Elections, Government Turnover, and Citizen Acceptance of Political Violence: Evidence from Election Panel Surveys in Zambia and Kenya

Elections in unconsolidated democracies are contentious moments with heightened risks of violence. Although elections offer hope to the politically marginalized, ruling parties often enjoy insurmountable advantages, sometimes leading to frustration and concerns for groups and citizens’ exclusion from power. How do elections shape citizens’ acceptance of political violence in unconsolidated democracies? Furthermore, can government turnovers reduce the support for political violence among citizens previously excluded from political power? We argue that citizens respond both to electoral outcomes and their perception of the electoral process when updating their attitudes on political violence. We leverage an original panel survey of the Zambia 2021 election to measure changes in attitudes to political violence before and after an election. Because the 2021 election resulted in a turnover of power, it provides a critical test to evaluate updated perceptions amid political change. We show that election winners reduce their support for political violence and election losers increase their acceptance of violence, even in the case of a turnover. We also show that increased perceptions of election quality reduce the acceptance of violence. Extending our study to an analysis of original panel data from the Kenyan 2017 election (a case without a turnover and low election quality), we find similar patterns.