Extreme event attribution for heat-related mortality due to anthropogenic climate change across Europe

Heatwaves are intensifying under climate change and have become the leading cause of weather-related mortality in Europe. Here we present a novel methodology that combines extreme event attribution methods with epidemiological models to quantify how anthropogenic climate change has altered the likelihood of extreme heat-related mortality events in 34 European countries. We find that in Southern Europe, 2022-like heat-related mortality events were, on average, 26.5× more likely relative to the pre-industrial baseline, roughly ten times the European average. The probability of such events increases further as global warming intensifies, with the greatest, nonlinear increases occurring in Southern Europe. Our analysis reveals significant regional and demographic disparities in climate vulnerability, emphasizing the need for population-specific analyses to inform effective adaptation strategies, reducing the projected health burden. Unlike other approaches, our study demonstrates that using near-real-time, publicly available mortality data enables rapid health impact event attribution analyses across large areas. A method combining extreme event attribution with epidemiological models shows that extreme heat-related mortality events in Southern Europe are 26.5 times more likely than in pre-industrial times, with regional and demographic disparities.