Spatiotemporal Evolution and Driving Factors of Landscape Ecological Risk in the Danjiangkou Reservoir Area Within the Production–Living–Ecological Space Framework

The Danjiangkou Reservoir Area is a critical water source for the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, making its ecological security of regional importance. Using land-use data from 1995, 2005, 2015, and 2023, this study classified the area into production, living, and ecological spaces and assessed the spatiotemporal evolution of landscape ecological risk. Spatial autocorrelation analysis and the optimal parameters-based geographical detector were further applied to identify spatial clustering and driving factors. Ecological space remained dominant throughout the study period, accounting for more than 77% of the total area, whereas production space declined and living space expanded. Landscape ecological risk was predominantly moderate to high, with high-risk areas concentrated around the reservoir, along the Hanjiang and Danjiang rivers, and in zones of intensive human activity, while low-risk areas were mainly located in peripheral mountainous and forest-dominated regions. Risk exhibited significant positive spatial autocorrelation, with Moran’s I decreasing slightly from 0.585 to 0.573. Population density had the strongest individual explanatory power, whereas the interaction between elevation and population density showed the highest explanatory power (q = 0.880–0.888). These findings support spatially differentiated ecological protection and territorial optimization in the reservoir area.