What does this research mean for the field?

Despite a significant global decline in epidemic frequency from 2000 to 2025, epidemic mortality and mortality ratios have not commensurately decreased, with the burden remaining heavily concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa. Novelty: ClaimNovelty.INCREMENTAL. Consensus alignment: ConsensusAlignment.NEUTRAL.

What question did this study set out to answer?

To characterize global epidemic trends between 2000 and 2025 and determine whether reductions in outbreak frequency are accompanied by reductions in epidemic mortality.

September 8, 2026Emergency Care and MedicineOpen Access

Fewer Epidemics, No Fewer Deaths: Global Trends in Epidemic Frequency and Mortality, 2000–2025—Evidence from the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT)

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Authors

İBİsmail Borazan HÇHamdi Haluk Çalı BKBurak Katipoğlu

Discussion

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Overview

Retrospective analysis reveals declining epidemic frequency without reductions in mortality across global populations, highlighting persistent vulnerabilities in emergency healthcare capacity.

Key Points

To characterize global epidemic trends between 2000 and 2025 and determine whether reductions in outbreak frequency are accompanied by reductions in epidemic mortality.
Conducted a retrospective global analysis of 893 epidemic infectious disease events across 131 countries from the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) following STROBE guidelines.
Evaluated crude mortality ratios (CMRs) across regions and pathogens with Kruskal–Wallis tests, and evaluated temporal trends using Mann–Kendall tests and Sen’s slope estimation.
Annual epidemic frequency declined significantly over the study period (τ = −0.668, p < 0.001), but neither annual mortality (τ = −0.237, p = 0.094) nor the annual mortality ratio (τ = −0.114, p = 0.427) demonstrated a significant decline.
Across 893 events with 125,262 deaths and 12.7 million affected individuals, sub-Saharan Africa accounted for 80.2% of all deaths; cholera was the most frequent pathogen, while Ebola exhibited a CMR of 42.71%.

Cite This Study

Borazan et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a9fd82f58e84d0ff5b4775d https://doi.org/10.3390/ecm3030032

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September 8, 2026Emergency Care and MedicineOpen Access

Fewer Epidemics, No Fewer Deaths: Global Trends in Epidemic Frequency and Mortality, 2000–2025—Evidence from the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT)

View Full Paper

Ask AI

Bookmark

Authors

İBİsmail Borazan HÇHamdi Haluk Çalı BKBurak Katipoğlu

Discussion

Member takes

Overview

Retrospective analysis reveals declining epidemic frequency without reductions in mortality across global populations, highlighting persistent vulnerabilities in emergency healthcare capacity.

Key Points

To characterize global epidemic trends between 2000 and 2025 and determine whether reductions in outbreak frequency are accompanied by reductions in epidemic mortality.
Conducted a retrospective global analysis of 893 epidemic infectious disease events across 131 countries from the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) following STROBE guidelines.
Evaluated crude mortality ratios (CMRs) across regions and pathogens with Kruskal–Wallis tests, and evaluated temporal trends using Mann–Kendall tests and Sen’s slope estimation.
Annual epidemic frequency declined significantly over the study period (τ = −0.668, p < 0.001), but neither annual mortality (τ = −0.237, p = 0.094) nor the annual mortality ratio (τ = −0.114, p = 0.427) demonstrated a significant decline.
Across 893 events with 125,262 deaths and 12.7 million affected individuals, sub-Saharan Africa accounted for 80.2% of all deaths; cholera was the most frequent pathogen, while Ebola exhibited a CMR of 42.71%.

Cite This Study

Borazan et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a9fd82f58e84d0ff5b4775d https://doi.org/10.3390/ecm3030032

View Full Paper

Ask AI

Bookmark