Simulation modeling reveals that vertical dairy intensification triggers ecological degradation by restricting herd mobility in pastoral systems, highlighting the need for multifunctional management.
By using a multi-agent computer simulator, this study investigated the socio-economic and ecological trade-offs of dairy intensification in the Dagana district of northern Senegal, a region currently transitioning from traditional pastoralism to industrial milk collection. While vertical intensification is often promoted as a technical solution for productivity, its systemic impacts on pastoral resilience remain poorly understood. Using the simulator (GASL-PIL) as a boundary object, we modelled three socio-economic scenarios to evaluate four core functions of livestock farming systems: (1) production; (2) social; (3) environmental; and (4) local development. Results showed a critical sedentarisation trap: while vertical intensification (tripling milk collection through price incentives) appeared economically efficient, it forced the anchoring of dairy herds to fixed points, stripping pastoralists of their primary adaptive mechanism – mobility – and creating grazing pressure beyond carrying capacity. However, the participatory modelling process facilitated a horizontalisation of power relations. By providing a transparent, quantified representation of territorial limits, the simulator acted as a neutral arbiter that allowed antagonistic stakeholders to recognise their interdependence. This led to the emergence of a territorial community, characterised by new horizontal collaborations, such as joint residue management and the organisation of the first Departmental milk fair. We conclude that managing pastoral transitions requires moving beyond vertical productivity targets to adopt a multifunctionality framework that internalises the spatial and social costs of intensification.
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Ferrari et al. (2026) studied this question.
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