Mathematical modeling study demonstrates a 75% transmission reduction with combined prevention strategies in South Africa, highlighting the value of multi-layered HIV interventions.
Since the 1980s, HIV/AIDS has evolved from an acute epidemic into a manageable chronic condition, yet approximately 39 million people worldwide live with HIV, highlighting persistent gaps in epidemic control. In this research work, We develop a compartmental model of HIV/AIDS transmission incorporating pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP), condom usage, and antiretroviral treatment (ART). Mathematical analysis shows local asymptotic stability when the basic reproduction number (R0H) < 1. The model exhibits backward bifurcation with imperfect prophylaxis, where endemic states persist even when R0H < 1; this vanishes at 100% efficacy. Sensitivity analysis identified natural death rate, HIV-to-AIDS progression, contact rate, and AIDS-to-treatment progression as most influential parameters. Calibrated with South African data (2010-2023), the model predicts 28% reduction in new infections by 2033. Simulations show that high condom efficacy (>80%) combined with PrEP, PEP, and ART could reduce transmission by 75%, demonstrating the effectiveness of integrated prevention strategies.
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Acheneje et al. (2026) studied this question.
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