[Effectiveness of different screening strategies for cardiovascular diseases prevention in a community-based Chinese population: A decision-analytic Markov model].

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the potential effectiveness of different screening strategies for cardiovascular diseases prevention in a community-based Chinese population from economically developed area of China. METHODS: in Chinese adults aged 40-74 years (Strategy 2); and the screening strategy based on the China-PAR models in Chinese adults aged 50-74 years (Strategy 3). According to the guidelines, individuals who were classified into medium- or high-risk groups after cardiovascular risk assessment by the corresponding strategies would be introduced to lifestyle intervention, while high-risk population would take medication in addition. Markov model was used to simulate different screening scenarios for 10 years (cycles), using parameters mainly from the CHERRY study, as well as published data, Meta-analyses and systematic reviews for Chinese populations. The life year gained, quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained, number of cardiovascular disease events/deaths could be prevented and number needed to be screened (NNS) were calculated to compare the effectiveness between the different strategies. One-way sensitivity analysis on uncertainty of cardiovascular disease incidence rate and probabilistic sensitivity analysis on uncertainty of distributions for the hazard ratios were conducted. RESULTS: : 127-529), respectively. The Strategies 1 and 2 based on different guidelines showed similar effectiveness, while more benefits were found for screening using China-PAR models in adults aged 40-74 years than those aged 50-74 years. The results were consistent in the sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSION: may have similar effectiveness.