Key result
African swine fever outbreaks in Ukraine between 2012 and 2023 peaked in 2017 (N=163) and 2018 (N=145), with early spread driven by wild boars and later spread by human activity.
Why the study?
To better understand the dynamics of the spread of African swine fever across Ukraine since its introduction in 2012.
Observational
Wild boars likely played an important role in the early spread of African swine fever in Ukraine, while human activity drove later spread.
May guide targeted ASF surveillance along Ukraine's borders; hypothesis-generating for wild boar versus human transmission roles.
African swine fever (ASF) is a viral disease, endemic to Africa, that causes high mortality when introduced into domestic pig populations. Since the emergence of p72-genotype II African swine fever virus (ASFV) in Georgia in 2007, an ASF epidemic has been spreading across Europe and many countries in Asia. The epidemic first reached Ukraine in 2012. To better understand the dynamics of spread of ASF in Ukraine, we analyzed spatial and temporal outbreak data reported in Ukraine between 2012 and mid-2023. The highest numbers of outbreaks were reported in 2017 (N = 163) and 2018 (N = 145), with overall peak numbers of ASF outbreaks reported in August (domestic pigs) and January (wild boars). While cases were reported from most of Ukraine, we found a directional spread from the eastern and northern borders towards the western and southern regions of Ukraine. Many of the early outbreaks (before 2016) were adjacent to the border, which is again true for more recent outbreaks in wild boar, but not for recent outbreaks in domestic pigs. Outbreaks prior to 2016 also occurred predominantly in areas with a below average domestic pig density. This new analysis suggests that wild boars may have played an important role in the introduction and early spread of ASF in Ukraine. However, in later years, the dynamic suggests human activity as the predominant driver of spread and a separation of ASF epizootics between domestic pigs and in wild boars. The decline in outbreaks since 2019 suggests that the implemented mitigation strategies are effective, even though long-term control or eradication remain challenging and will require continued intensive surveillance of ASF outbreak patterns.
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Bezymennyi et al. (2023) conducted an observational in African swine fever (ASF). African swine fever outbreaks was evaluated on Spatial and temporal outbreak dynamics. African swine fever outbreaks in Ukraine between 2012 and 2023 peaked in 2017 (N=163) and 2018 (N=145), with early spread driven by wild boars and later spread by human activity.
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