Long-Term Forecasting of Vehicle Ownership and Road Traffic

Methods of forecasting long-term growth of car ownership and of road traffic for Great Britain are described, and earlier forecasts for 1975 are compared with the actual outcome. Recent analyses of car ownership data are summarized, and this leads to a modified form of the forecasting model. This kind of forecasting presents many difficulties; a number of these are discussed. A discussion on the paper is included. /TRRL/