Does the Emergency Surgery Score predict failure to discharge the patient home? A nationwide analysis

BACKGROUND: The Emergency Surgery Score (ESS) is a point-based scoring system validated to predict mortality and morbidity in emergency general surgery (EGS). In addition to demographics and comorbidities, ESS accounts for the acuity of disease at presentation. We sought to examine whether ESS can predict the destination of discharge of EGS patients, as a proxy for quality of life at discharge. METHODS: Using the 2007 to 2017 American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database, we identified all EGS patients. EGS cases were defined as per American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program as those performed by a general surgeon within a short interval from diagnosis or the onset of related symptomatology, when the patient's well-being and outcome may be threatened by unnecessary delay and patient's status could deteriorate unpredictably or rapidly. Emergency Surgery Score patients were then categorized by their discharge disposition to home versus rehabilitation or nursing facilities. All patients with missing ESS or discharge disposition and those discharged to hospice, senior communities, or separate acute care facilities were excluded. Emergency Surgery Score was calculated for each patient. C statistics were used to study the correlation between ESS and the destination of discharge. RESULTS: Of 6,485,915 patients, 84,694 were included. The mean age was 57 years, 51% were female, and 79.6% were discharged home. The mean ESS was 5. Emergency Surgery Score accurately and reliably predicted the discharge destination with a C statistic of 0.83. For example, ESS of 1, 10, and 20 were associated with 0.9%, 56.5%, and 100% rates of discharge to a rehabilitation or nursing facility instead of home. CONCLUSION: Emergency Surgery Score accurately predicts which EGS patients require discharge to rehabilitation or nursing facilities and can thus be used for preoperatively counseling patients and families and for improving early discharge preparations, when appropriate. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Prognostic and epidemiological, level III.