Prediction of Postoperative Infection for Patients Undergoing Gastrointestinal Surgery: Findings from Electronic Health Records

Introduction: Postoperative infection is a major cause of morbidity and prolonged hospitalization in patients undergoing gastrointestinal surgery. This observational study aimed to investigate the risk factors associated with postoperative infection and to develop a prediction model for postoperative infections that occur after gastrointestinal surgery. Methods: The study population comprised 1637 patients who underwent gastrointestinal surgery at Niigata University Medical and Dental Hospital between June 2013 and May 2017. Observational data from 1883 surgical procedures were used in the statistical analyses (including 198 patients who underwent several operations). Results: The generalized estimating equation (GEE) was used to detect significant risk factors, including older age, history of smoking, body temperature greater than 38 °C, non-endoscopic surgical procedures, surgery in the thoracic or lower gastrointestinal tract, and use of medical nutritional products during surgery. The sensitivity and specificity of the GEE model were 88.2% and 55.1%, respectively. Conclusion: This study established a predictable GEE model, incorporating the data of patients who were hospitalized several times into a prediction analysis, even though the sensitivity was not sufficiently high. The GEE model, which is considered clinically useful, can be constructed using a variety of variables, including those obtained from electronic health records.