Longitudinal Associations Between Walking Speed and Amount of Self-reported Time Spent Walking Over a 9-Year Period in Older Women and Men

Background: Age-related limitations in mobility and decreased physical activity appear to be linked cross-sectionally; however, large-scale, longitudinal analyses of the associations between age-related changes in mobility and engagement in physical activity are lacking. In this longitudinal study, we hypothesized that early mobility limitations would contribute to later decreases in physical activity to a larger degree than the reciprocal association of early decreases in physical activity to later mobility limitations. Methods: Participants were 2,876 initially well-functioning community-dwelling older adults (aged 70-79 years at baseline; 52% women; 39% black) studied over a 9-year period. Usual walking speed and self-reported physical activity (based on minutes per week of walking) were assessed at Years 0 (ie, baseline), 4, and 9. A cross-lagged, longitudinal model assessed the bidirectional associations between walking speed and physical activity over time. Results: Early change in walking speed between Years 0 and 4 predicted late change in physical activity between Years 4 and 9 (β = .13 p < .001). However, early change in physical activity did not predict late change in walking speed (β = -.01, p = .79). The difference between these two predictive associations was highly significant (p < .001). Associations were independent of baseline demographic and physical health variables, as well as longitudinal changes in grip and quadriceps strength. Conclusions: The results suggest declining walking speed as a precursor to declining engagement in physical activity, but the converse association was not evident. Improving walking speed may be a method to increase physical activity among elderly individuals.