In Search of Balance

The climate of Earth and its global mean surface temperature are the consequence of a balance between the amount of solar radiation absorbed by Earth's surface and atmosphere and the amount of outgoing longwave radiation emitted by the system. The former is governed by the albedo (reflectivity) of the system, whereas the latter depends strongly on the atmospheric content of gases and particles (such as clouds and dust). Although the theory of absorption of infrared radiation by gases in the atmosphere (1) is well accepted and embodied in climate models, the observational and theoretical treatments of albedo, aerosols, and clouds are still under development. One brevium (2) and two reports (3, 4) in this issue report estimates of Earth's albedo and of solar radiation reaching the surface, but the uncertainties remain large. The buildup of CO_2 (5), CH_4, and other greenhouse gases during the past century has led to an increased absorption of infrared radiation in the atmosphere (enhanced greenhouse effect) and a consequent warming (“positive forcing”) of the climate. But human-made changes in aerosols and clouds can cause enhanced albedo and hence cooling (“negative forcing”), and they may already have offset a substantial part of the enhanced greenhouse effect. Present trends suggest that by 2050, the magnitude of the enhanced greenhouse effect will be so large that the net anthropogenic forcing will be unequivocally positive and substantial in magnitude (6).