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September 10, 2026WIT transactions on modelling and simulation2 citationsOpen Access

Semi-analytic subsidence prediction

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PFPeter A. Fokker

Key Points

  • To develop a fast semi-analytical modeling framework capable of predicting surface subsidence over multilayered hydrocarbon reservoirs with varying elastic properties.
  • Formulated a semi-analytical algorithm to evaluate subsidence across layered subsurfaces with layer-specific elastic properties.
  • Benchmarked model performance against conventional analytical and numerical subsidence prediction approaches.
  • Evaluated the operational flexibility of the method using a representative hydrocarbon field case.
  • Achieved high calculation speeds comparable to analytical formulations while accommodating complex multilayered geology.
  • Demonstrated strong agreement in validation benchmarks against both analytical and numerical modeling methods.

Abstract

Subsidence of the surface due to the extraction of gas or oil from hydrocarbon reservoirs can in some cases be considerable. Two places where this is a problem are the Groningen field in The Netherlands and the Ekofisk field offshore Norway. Two approaches have traditionally been used to calculate subsidence: analytical and numerical. This paper presents a semi-analytical method, which has broader applicability than analytical models while calculation times remain very short. This new method can be applied for a multilayer subsurface in which the elastic properties vary per layer. It performed excellently in a validation exercise against analytical and numerical approaches. Further, the flexibility of the method was demonstrated using a field case. The new approach does not yet incorporate the viscoelastic behaviour of salt layers; this is scheduled for the near future.

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Cite This Study

Peter A. Fokker (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6aa27a0b58559d80afc72ad2https://doi.org/10.82135/tno-280332
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