Towards a zero-waste city: carbon emissions and reduction potential from solid waste management in Wuhan

The rapid growth of urban solid waste (SW), driven by population growth and economic development, poses significant challenges. Reducing waste generation and enhancing resource recovery through sustainable SW management are critical to achieving carbon emission reductions. This study assesses the carbon emission performance of Wuhan, China, in its progression toward a zero waste city (ZWC). Recognizing the role of avoided emissions in offsetting carbon emissions from waste utilization, this study applies the emission factor approach to estimate net carbon emissions, with direct emissions estimated following the IPCC Guidelines and avoided emissions quantified based on alternative substitution assumptions. The results show that SW generation in Wuhan rose from 31.92 Mt to 52.00 Mt between 2010 and 2022. Despite this increase, improvements in SW management systems redirected waste flows toward more harmless and resource-efficient treatment methods, resulting in a shift in net emissions from 643 Kt CO2-eq to −2800 Kt CO2-eq. Scenario analysis suggests that, by following this ZWC pathway, Wuhan could achieve carbon reduction potentials of 94 Kt CO2-eq by 2027 and 259 Kt CO2-eq by 2035, compared with the Business-as-Usual scenario. These findings offer valuable insights for the future improvement of China’s ZWC strategy and provide practical implications for other developing countries seeking to reduce carbon emissions through waste management.