Land use and land cover changes compromise ecosystem services in protected areas of Brazil

Protected areas play a critical role in maintaining ecosystem services, yet their effectiveness often depends on governance quality and land-use dynamics. This study assessed 16 sustainable-use PAs located within the Central Atlantic Forest Corridor in southern Bahia, Brazil, using geospatial data modeling and proposing the Ecosystem Services Aggregate Index (ESAI) as a tool for diagnostic assessment and management prioritization. Spatial analyses of land use and land cover transitions were conducted from 1992 to 2022 and ecosystem service supply and demand matrices were constructed based on the Common International Classification of Ecosystem Services. These matrices were aggregated into an index adjusted to the protected area category under analysis. The results indicated that, over the 30-year period, there was a conversion of native vegetation into agricultural and urban land uses, resulting in losses of coastal strand vegetation (−406 ha) and reductions in forest formations (−75,459 ha). Forest formations were identified as the main providers of ESs, followed by mangroves and coastal strand ecosystems, while urban areas and pastures exhibited high demand and low provisioning capacity. The ESAI revealed a scenario in which 10 out of the 16 PAs are under critical alert (ESAI ≤ 0.10), and six are under high pressure (0.11 ≤ ESAI ≤ 0.30). The absence or ineffectiveness of management instruments was associated with lower ESAI scores, emphasizing that effective governance is essential for maintaining ecosystem functionality. The legal designation of protected status alone does not guarantee ecosystem conservation or the sustainability of ESs. These findings highlight the ESAI’s potential as a diagnostic tool for guiding adaptive management and conservation planning in protected landscapes.