PulseExploreJournal ClubDebatesTrendingResearchersJournals
Instagram
HomeExploreJournal ClubTrending
Synapse
⌘+K
Synapse
September 10, 2026Journal of the American College of Cardiology23 citationsOpen Access

Cardiac Troponins and Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction

View Full Paper
ASAnoop ShahSKSpencer KeeneLPLisa Pennells

Key Result

Higher concentrations of cardiac troponin T and I were associated with increased risk of first-onset CVD (HR 1.31, 95% CI 1.25-1.37 and HR 1.26, 95% CI 1.19-1.33 per 1-SD increase).

Key Points

  • To quantify the predictive value of adding cardiac troponin T or I to conventional risk factors for first-onset cardiovascular disease prevention.
  • Meta-analyzed individual-participant data from 15 prospective cohorts comprising 62,150 individuals without prior cardiovascular disease.
  • Assessed hazard ratios, C-index changes, and continuous net reclassification improvement for incident coronary heart disease or stroke across a median follow-up of 11.8 years (cTnT) and 9.8 years (cTnI).
  • Modeled prevention implications of initiating statin therapy using incidence rates from 2.1 million UK individuals.
  • Per 1-SD higher concentration, hazard ratios for CVD were 1.31 (95% CI: 1.25–1.37; 8,133 events) for cTnT and 1.26 (95% CI: 1.19–1.33; 3,749 events) for cTnI.
  • Adding troponin to conventional risk factors increased the C-index by 0.015 (95% CI: 0.012–0.018) for cTnT and 0.012 (95% CI: 0.009–0.015) for cTnI, with continuous net reclassification improvements of 6% and 5% in cases and 22% and 17% in noncases.
  • Screening reclassified intermediate-risk patients to high risk, preventing one cardiovascular event for every 408 (cTnT) and 473 (cTnI) individuals screened after statin initiation.

Study Design

Type

Meta-Analysis (n=62,150)

Multicenter

Yes

PICO

P
Population
62,150 participants without prior cardiovascular disease from 15 cohorts, followed for a median of 9.8 to 11.8 years.
E
Exposure / Comparator
High-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (cTnT) or I (cTnI) vs Conventional risk factors alone
O
Primary Outcome
First-onset CVD (coronary heart disease or stroke) — HR 1.31 (1.25-1.37)

Main Result

Hazard Ratio: 1.31 (95% CI 1.25–1.37)

Abstract

BACKGROUND The extent to which high-sensitivity cardiac troponin can predict cardiovascular disease (CVD) is uncertain. OBJECTIVES We aimed to quantify the potential advantage of adding information on cardiac troponins to conventional risk factors in the prevention of CVD. METHODS We meta-analyzed individual-participant data from 15 cohorts, comprising 62,150 participants without prior CVD. We calculated HRs, measures of risk discrimination, and reclassification after adding cardiac troponin T (cTnT) or I (cTnI) to conventional risk factors. The primary outcome was first-onset CVD (ie, coronary heart disease or stroke). We then modeled the implications of initiating statin therapy using incidence rates from 2.1 million individuals from the United Kingdom. RESULTS Among participants with cTnT or cTnI measurements, 8,133 and 3,749 incident CVD events occurred during a median follow-up of 11.8 and 9.8 years, respectively. HRs for CVD per 1-SD higher concentration were 1.31 (95% CI: 1.25-1.37) for cTnT and 1.26 (95% CI: 1.19-1.33) for cTnI. Addition of cTnT or cTnI to conventional risk factors was associated with C-index increases of 0.015 (95% CI: 0.012-0.018) and 0.012 (95% CI: 0.009-0.015) and continuous net reclassification improvements of 6% and 5% in cases and 22% and 17% in noncases. One additional CVD event would be prevented for every 408 and 473 individuals screened based on statin therapy in those whose CVD risk is reclassified from intermediate to high risk after cTnT or cTnI measurement, respectively. CONCLUSIONS Measurement of cardiac troponin results in a modest improvement in the prediction of first-onset CVD that may translate into population health benefits if used at scale.

Expert Takes5 quotes

1/5

“Troponin, even in the normal range, is a powerful indicator of silent heart muscle damage. As such, the test provides an extra layer of information that we can use to boost our accuracy when predicting people's risk. Incorporation of troponin into current cardiovascular risk estimation guidelines can be useful for identifying high risk individuals who will benefit from preventative treatment, reducing the risk of future circulatory problems.”

Anoop Shah, Professor of Cardiovascular Medicine, LSHTMauto_pipelineSupportiveView source
Ask AI
Helpful
Bookmark
Share
View Full Paper

Cite This Study

Shah et al. (2025) conducted a meta-analysis in Cardiovascular disease (n=62,150). High-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (cTnT) or I (cTnI) vs. Conventional risk factors alone was evaluated on First-onset CVD (coronary heart disease or stroke) (HR 1.31, 95% CI 1.25-1.37). Higher concentrations of cardiac troponin T and I were associated with increased risk of first-onset CVD (HR 1.31, 95% CI 1.25-1.37 and HR 1.26, 95% CI 1.19-1.33 per 1-SD increase).

synapsesocial.com/papers/6aa2ebfb16ae72e331533064https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jacc.2025.02.016
Ask AI
Helpful
Bookmark
Share
View Full Paper