Temperature shocks could accelerate China's expansion of agricultural operations amid ageing trends

The integration of smallholder land and expanded agricultural operational scale are global agricultural development trends. Using 2012–2020 longitudinal data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) combined with satellite-derived meteorological records, this study examines how temperature shocks influence land rental behaviour, supplemented by rigorous robustness checks. Results indicate that temperature shocks reduce per-hectare net income, deteriorate working conditions, and increase smallholders' likelihood of transferring out land – particularly elderly farmers supported by their children. Notably, factor inputs (e.g. fertilisers and irrigation water) in large-scale operations are less susceptible to temperature fluctuations, mitigating related environmental risks. The study concludes that moderate agricultural scale expansion constitutes a more efficient and climate-resilient production model. For smallholder-dominated countries/regions, measures such as optimising land rental mechanisms and enhancing climate adaptation support can mitigate temperature shock impacts and drive agricultural sustainable transformation.